A lost generation? The early career effects of graduating during a recession
We estimate the effect of graduating during a recession on the early careers of high educated graduates in the Netherlands between 1996 and 2012. Exploiting field-specific differences in un-employment rates, we find that graduates on average suffer a 2.3% lower wage in a typical recession in their first year. The wage loss fades out four years after graduation. Employment probabilities are hardly affected.
We find that women suffer larger wage losses than men. Poor entry conditions are associated with an increased probability of employment at lower quality employers. The primary mechanism through which graduates catch up to their luckier counterparts is mobility across jobs and sectors to better paying employers. We show that those who graduate during a recession are more likely to switch jobs earlier, and less likely to switch jobs later in their career. This suggests an intertemporal shift in job-search effort. While both men and women who graduate during a recession are more likely to switch employers in the short-run, the average returns to successful job search are much higher for men than for women.
|Author(s)||W. van den Berge, A. Brouwers|
|Year of publication||Jul, 2017|
|Publisher||CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Hague|
|Website / Document||Visit|
Nieuwsbrief week 31 - 2017
- Aspects of non-standard employment in Europe, 2017. D. Storrie.
- Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2017, 2017. European Commission.
- Getting Skills Right: Good Practice in Adapting to Changing Skill Needs, 2017. OECD.
- A lost generation? The early career effects of graduating during a recession, 2017. W. van den Berge, A. Brouwers.
- Labor Market Vulnerability of Older Workers in the Netherlands and its Impact on Downward Mobility and Reduction of Working Hours, 2017. M. Visser, M. Gesthuizen, G. Kraaykamp, M.H.J. Wolbers.
- Arbeidsmarkt in cijfers 2016, 2017. CBS.
- Arbeidsmarktprognose 2017-2018, 2017. UWV.
- Werken in de toekomst, 2017. G. de Bruin, L. Fröberg, H. Laterveer, S. Linde, N. Schutte, B. Sprenger de Rover, A.M. de Witte.
- Mobiliteit binnen de perken, 2017. A. Strockmeijer, P.T. de Beer, J. Dagevos.
- Evaluatie effecten administratieve lasten bedrijven Wet uniformering loonbegrip, 2017. J. Boog, S. van Loo, M. van Marwijk, P. van der Zeijden.